2010 Congressional Reapportionment

The 2010 Census data is used to determine how many seats each state will have in the 435 member House of Representatives for the next ten years.   Reapportionment is the process by which these House seats are reallocated within the fifty states after every national census.  As a result of reapportionment, some states will gain House seats, some will lose members of their House delegation, while other states will remain the same.   

On December 31, 2010, the President receives the Census population counts.   This information provides the allocation of seats each state will have in the House of Representatives.  In late March 2011, detailed redistricting data is supplied to the states, at which point the redistricting process begins.  

When redistricting, each state determines the boundaries of their congressional districts in geographic areas with equal population. In thirty eight states, the state legislature draws the redistricting map and then goes to the governor for signature, while in five states, responsibility falls to independent redistricting commissions.  At this time, it is not expected the other seven states currently with one representative, will change their number, so they will not go through a redistricting process (as the entire state is the house district).

Redistricting will have a significant impact on the 2012 elections and House of Representatives membership for the next decade.  During this process, the party controlling redistricting may design districts to maximize their influence and delegation numbers.  Demographic information, as well as voting history, political background, and legal considerations all plays a role in crafting these district lines.  Incumbents could be forced out by new district maps (lose district or face another incumbent), or have their district redrawn in a less favorable way for election.  Political parties may increase their delegation numbers in states where they control the redistricting process, and incumbents may have reworked boundaries with more favorable district lines.  More competitive districts may also result in the redraw of congressional boundary lines.

There are numerous studies projecting which states win or lose seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.  Projections point up to a possible ten states which may gain one or more seats after the 2010 elections while  thirteen states could lose one seat or more. 

States that may pick up a seat are located predominately in the South and Southwest and possibly the upper Northwest,     some of the fast growing areas of the country.  The ten states projected to gain are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North and South Carolina, Oregon, Texas, Utah and Washington.  Republicans control both state legislatures and the governor’s office in five (Utah, Texas, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina), Democrats control in North Carolina and Oregon.  Nevada has split party control, while Arizona and Washington have independent commissions to draw their district lines.

States projected to lose seats are primarily in the Northeast and Midwest (Rust Belt).  Louisiana lost population in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.  Of the thirteen, currently seven – California, Ohio, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri and Pennsylvania – have split control while Democrats control state government in Illinois, Massachusetts, New York and Wisconsin.  Two states – Iowa and New Jersey, use independent redistricting commissions.

Click here for a chart outlining potential states which may gain or lose seats.

State elections in 2010 are very important because redistricting responsibility all comes down to the states.  For instance, in California for the first decade since 1850, may keep 53 seats or lose one instead of gaining seats.  Democrats have strong control the state legislature and term limited Republican Governor Schwarzenegger, may be replaced with a Democrat, enhancing further Democratic Party dominance.  However, also in the mix is a 2010 referendum establishing an independent commission to handle congressional redistricting.   A part of any redistricting effort will be how to address the growing influence of the Hispanic population in the state.

Texas may receive up to four new seats and is currently controlled by the Republicans.  However, Texas has a contentious race for Governor in 2010, and narrow Republican State House control going into the 2010 elections may shake things up.   Add to that, the increased Hispanic population in Democratic areas of the state will be important in determining how these additional seats are drawn and where.  The winner of the race for Governor and the 2010 state elections will have major bearing on the Texas congressional delegation over the next decade. 

In Pennsylvania, a GOP victory in the 2010 Governor’s race and a few Republican victories in the State House could shift reapportionment influence from Democrats to Republicans.  Even in states where there are no expectations of changing the number of seats, the upcoming 2010 election and what party controls state government will be key in determining how redistricting maps are drawn.

Reapportionment also impacts presidential elections and the number of electors each state has in the Electoral College.  Each state’s electors are determined by the size of its total congressional delegation (House of Representatives delegation plus two Senators).  Reapportment resulting from the 2010 Census will impact the 2012, 2016 and 2020 presidential elections by giving some states more electors or decreasing the number of electors in other states.

Sources:  National Journal, Washington Post, National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), Polidata